[Act-ma_discuss] Notes and info on The Omicron Variant

Tue Dec 21 15:57:25 PST 2021

[My son wrote this up, and I'm sharing because maybe these
notes/links might be helpful.

Happy Holidays, one and all!! -- Amy]

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Subject: The Omicron Variant

It's a new epidemic.  I would encourage everybody to pay
attention to the Omicron Variant.  There are links below.

The executive summary:

1. It is not mild.

2. It is extremely infectious.

3. It is rapidly spreading through the population.

4. It somewhat evades vaccination and prior infections.

More detail:

As of 2021/12/21, much is not known.  It was first reported
to the WHO on 2021/11/24.  We are just getting to know it.

1. It is not mild.  People have been claiming that this
variant is "mild", but that simply is not known at this
time.  Even if it is "mild", it is going to cause many
deaths because so many people are going to get it.  It is
important not to engage in wishful thinking.

2. It is extremely infectious.  This we know for sure.  It
seems to have a doubling rate of about two days which is
extreme.  It means if you have one case, 20 days later you
will have over a thousand cases.

3. It is rapidly spreading through the population.  No
serious precautions are being taken and it is spreading
rapidly throughout the United States, but particularly in
the Northeast.

4. It somewhat evades vaccination and prior infections.
Take a look at the genetic distance graph at the top of this
page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant

The Omicron Variant is significantly different from all
other strains of SARS-CoV-2.  Our vaccines target the "spike
proteins" which the virus uses to enter cells.  The spike
proteins of the Omicron Variant are somewhat different.
This means that our antibodies from vaccination or prior
infection may not match as well.  Computer modelling
suggests this.  It is also suggested by the rapid spread of
the variant.

What to Do:

0. Make sure you are vaccinated and boosted.

1. Be very careful for the next few months.  Think Spring of
2020.

2. Reduce your chances of infection.  Even if an action has
low risk, if you do it over and over again, it will not be
low risk.

3. Get disposable N95 masks and use them properly.

At the outset of the epidemic, it was difficult to get any
kind of mask.  So, we had to make do.  That's why people
were using surgical masks or cloth scarves.  That's why
people were reusing masks.

Now, however, we can buy disposable N95 masks.  I like the
3M 9010 masks.  I find they have a good seal.  They took a
little getting used to, but once you do, you feel naked with
a mere surgical mask:

https://www.amazon.com/3M-Disposable-Particulate-Respirator-
50-count/dp/B0076HIPCU/ref=sr_1_5?crid=1TE4XUW2971FN&keyword
s=3M+N95+Masks+9010&qid=1640109363&sprefix=3m+n95+masks+9010
%2Caps%2C150&sr=8-5

Do not reuse the masks.  Use the mask once and carefully
dispose of it.  We wear these masks because we expect to be
exposed to COVID at some point.  If we are, it means that
COVID viral particles are present on the mask.  We need to
assume those particles are on the mask every time.

"How to Properly Put on and Take Off a Disposable
Respirator" from the CDC
:
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2010-133/pdfs/2010-133.pdf

We can get N95 masks now, so we no longer need to take
desperation measures.

4. Read a lot about the Omicron Variant.  In particular, I
am no expert!  And we are learning more about it so the
story is going to be changing, we just don't know how.

This is an article from the CDC on the Omicron Variant, from
their "Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report" (MMWR):

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7050e1.htm?s_cid=mm
7050e1_w

The main takeaway of that article is that we do not know
much right now.

I really like the articles in the MMWR.  They are detailed
oriented and, as nearly as I can tell, brutally honest.
When they make a claim, they tell you why they are making
it.  When they are guessing, they tell you.

The main MMWR page: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/ The index of
2021 articles: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index2021.html

The Wikipedia is a great source, of course:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant

The World Socialist Web Site (Trotskyist) has been
consistently responsible during this epidemic.  Here is an
article on the Omicron
Variant:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/12/21/omic-d21.html
> In recent studies by the Imperial College, London, titled
reports 48 
> and 49, the authors found that vaccine effectiveness for
Omicron 
> dropped by 4.5-fold compared to Delta. They also confirmed
the new 
> variant's explosive exponential growth and wrote, "we find
no evidence 
> (for both risks of hospitalization attendance and symptom
> status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta,
though data 
> on hospitalization are still very limited."

These are the reports that underly the quotation:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/m
rc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-48.pdf
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/m
rc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf

I've only looked at them briefly, so far.  Report 48 seems
to suggest that vaccination does offer significant
protection against the Omicron Variant, just not as much.

John Campbell is a great source of information.  This is his
channel:

https://www.youtube.com/c/Campbellteaching

One thing to keep in mind with Campbell is that he is often
going through papers for his viewers.  This is not the same
as agreeing with the paper.  He is going over the paper to
help people understand what is being said.  In one case, one
might have gotten the impression he agreed with the paper,
but then a few days later he suggested the author should
have been fired!

Michael Osterholm is another great source:

https://www.youtube.com/c/OsterholmUpdateCOVID19

When the CDC was telling us to "wash your hands", Osterholm
was saying COVID was passed through the air.  Osterholm was
involved with Biden's COVID team during the transition, but
I think they dropped him because he was too outspoken.
Outspoken is what we want!

The World Socialist Web Site had a pretty good interview on
the Omicron Variant with Dr. Anthony Leonardi:

"Dr. Anthony Leonardi discusses the Omicron variant and the
COVID-19 pandemic"
World Socialist Web Site
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUfmo80kAxI

And it has to be pointed out that nearly all of this didn't
have to happen.  The United States COVID policy has been and
continues to be a disaster.  You protect "the economy" by
taking care of the epidemic.
Duh!

The World Socialist Web Site has a good article on how the
Zero COVID policy is working in China:

"The misunderstood -- and misrepresented -- Zero COVID
policy in China"
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/12/13/chin-d13.html

Maybe we could learn something from the experts!